Since I believe there's more to this game than Manning versus the Pats' defense, I'll analyze the matchups.
The matchup everyone can't stop talking about: Colts' offense vs. Pats' defense:
Manning and his weapons are impressive. On paper, there is nothing to complain about for this offense, talent everywhere with no big weaknesses. Everyone talks about the passing attack, but James has had a very good year. In the first matchup against the Pats, James ran all over the defense.
There are some concerns for the Colts. Some of this season's great stats can be attributed to weak opponents and playing in good conditions. Well, that's over now (unless they make it to the Super Bowl and play some poor NFC team). Then there's the turnover factor. Manning has a history of throwing the ball to Pats defenders and James has had some significant fumbles. This could haunt the Colts. Finally, there's the Manning Belichick factor; Manning's been dreadful against Belichick, will this continue?
The big story about the Pats' defense is their injuries. First Ty Law: he had a great game in last years matchup against Manning, so with him out that's one less thing for the Colts to worry about. However, when watching the Pats, many interceptions are more of a team effort rather than an individual effort. The Pats are still capable of having a good pass rush and confusing coverages, which lead to interceptions no matter who's in your secondary.
The injury I'm worried about is Richard Seymour, especially now that it looks like he can't play. Seymour is a great player, and I don't know if he can be replaced. This worries me.
The Pats defense dominated teams last year. This year, they're more of a "bend, don't break team." Because of their injuries, they play a ton of zone, giving up many small plays and first downs so they can prevent the big play. Most teams have been able to move the ball up and down the field against the Pats, but then they stall in the red zone. For this I give most of the credit to the Pats' linebackers who become so much tougher in a short field.
Because the Pats defensive isn't as dominant as last year's, they depend more on the big play. Fortunately, Rodney Harrison, Tedy Bruschi, Willie McGinest, and Mike Vrabel all tend to make big plays in big games. If the Pats win, don't be surprised if an interception or a forced fumble from one of the above becomes the play of the game. Two other players who could come up with big plays: defensive back Troy Brown (he's a playmaker no matter where you put him) and Jarvis Green (had some big sacks late last year).
Final Thoughts: The Colts will move the ball, but it won't be like they're playing the Broncos game. The story of the game will be if Manning and James can avoid mistakes. Since, I'm a homer, I say they'll make costly mistakes.
The matchup everybody should be talking about: Pats' offense vs. Colts' defense:
While the Pats are weaker on defense this year, they are much stronger on offense. Brady and his receivers are as good as ever, and now they have Corey Dillon. Along with newcomer Dillon, the Pats have David Patten back, and he's been a very good deep threat this year. A big negative is that Kevin Faulk might not be available, and he's always dangerous.
The Pats run well, pass well, and make few mistakes. I see two concerns however. One, against the Colts the Pats have had trouble converting in the redzone. It will be very tough for the Pats to win if they have to settle for field goals. Two, Corey Dillon's been fumbling too much. This scares me.
The Colts' defense is supposedly better this year, but I'm not convinced. Mathis is out and Freely is a good pass rusher. However the Pats will negate Freely's talent by running at him and by having Daniel Graham help out against him. I don't have much to say about the Colts defense other than they haven't stopped the Patriots' offense yet, and I see nothing new about them that will make Sunday different.
Final Thoughts: I see this matchup as a big advantage for the Patriots. The only question marks I have is Dillon's fumbles and red zone proficiency.
Special Teams. They're called "special" for a reason:
So many games are determined by special teams, but people tend to ignore them when previewing a game. That said, I don't know much about the Colts' special teams this year. Since I haven't heard anything, I think it's safe to say they're not great and they're not awful. Speaking of awful, the Pats coverage team has been awful. This could haunt them. On the bright side for the Pats, Bethel Johnson always has the potential to return a kick for a touchdown (he did it against the Colts before).
As for the specialist: the punters look even, but then there's the place kickers. Vanderjack's good in a dome and especially good in providing the Pats bulletin board material. The Patriots have Adam Vinatieri. Enough said.
Intangibles:
Now that my thesis is almost over, some things I might have forgotten.
- I love the idea that Belichick had two weeks to prepare for this.
- I keep thinking of when the Pats beat the Rams in the Super Bowl. Their secondary supposedly didn't madchup with the Ram's receivers, but Belichick found a way.
- Officiating. This could drive me crazy. The Pats' linebackers will try to beat up the Colts' receivers, and Manning and his receivers will cry murder every time there's an incomplete pass. I have a feeling there will be a lot of calls against the Pats, but I think the Pats are ready to deal with it. They'd rather take a penalty than a big play.
- The winner of this game wins the Super Bowl.
- I guess I'll make a prediction: Patriots 34, Colts 27
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