Thursday, January 13, 2005

Steelers vs. Jets Preview

Written by the Godfather

I am a Jets fan and fairly biased, but this is my opinion. I figured there are enough Pats' fans to preview that game.

First of all, don't touch this game betting because the Jets will either win or Pitt will cover the spread (comfortably).

OK. The Steelers with a 14 game winning streak going against a Jets team that backed into the playoffs, winning one of their last 4 games (all of which were playoff teams). The Jets catch a break with a missed FG win OT to pull out a win at SD while the Steelers are resting. In week 14, the Steelers pull away late with a 17-6 win at Pittsburgh as Pennington throws 0 TD's and 3 INT's. So it will be the Steelers in a laugher, right? Here why the Jets CAN win.

The Jets most obvious weakness is their secondary. Rothlesberger has thrown more than 25 passes only once this year (against the NY Giants). The Pitt offense relies on Staley and Bettis to control the clock and Rothlesberger not to make mistakes. The Jets allow 97.39 yards a game against the rush. If they hold the Steelers in check on the running game, then they will force Rothlesberger to beat them through the air.

Now to the rookie QB. What an outstanding year he had. BUT he is a rookie. He is playing in his first postseason game. He did hurt his ribs in the regular season. He did not play in week 17 and had a bye last week, so is he rusty? I think the way to beat the Steelers to jump them early and get an early lead. Rothlesberger will not beat you though the air and a lead will prevent Staley and Bettis from beating you. An early passing attack from Pennington could put the Steelers in a hole early and force them to change their game plan.

Other factors to consider. Curtis Martin. He is just amazing. Lamont Jordan in the 4th quarter. Just a bruising back that can punish a tired defense late in the game.

Pennington's career numbers in the Red zone. 39 TD's. 0 INT's. No turnovers in the red zone. Critical. Curtis Martin has not lost a fumble all year long. The Jets have a great plus/minus ratio and they are one of least penalized teams in the league (with the exception of the SD game last week). The Jets do not beat themselves. I think they have a legit chance of winning this game. My prediction is the Jets 27 Steelers 17.

I know this seems ridiculous, but if my analysis holds true, the Jets should win.

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